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Ben Graham: The Other Advantage of Diversification

June 18, 2020 by Jon

Most people understand the idea of not putting all your eggs in one basket. Diversification reduces portfolio risk by spreading your money across a number of stocks.

In 1952, Ben Graham wrote about another benefit of diversification that doesn’t get talked about as much:

In this connection I want to throw out a broad and challenging idea — that from a scientific standpoint common stocks as a whole may be regarded as an essentially undervalued security form. This point grows out of the basic difference between individual risk and overall or group risk. People insist on a substantially higher dividend return and a still larger excess in earnings yield for common stocks than for bonds, because the risk of loss in the average single common stock issue is undoubtedly greater than in the average single bond. But the comparison has not been true historically of a diversified group of common stocks, since common stocks as a whole have had a well-defined upward bias or long-term upward movement. This in turn is readily explicable in terms of the country’s growth, plus the steady reinvestment of undistributed profits, plus the strong net inflationary trend since the turn of the century.

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How John Patterson Played the Business Cycle

June 12, 2020 by Jon

John H. Patterson was ahead of his time. He’s the reason why a lot of business practices exist today. In 1884, he took control of what would become the National Cash Register Company and the business world would never be the same.

But before that ever happened Patterson read a book that taught him an important lesson. Benner’s Prophecies of Future Ups and Downs in Prices is exactly like it sounds.

Samuel Benner wrote the first edition in 1875, followed by 15 more editions, each one updated with new predictions on the market. He played the role of market fortune teller well.

If you look past the prophecies, Benner pushed the idea that business and prices move in cycles. It’s obvious today, but it was a new idea at the time. Which is exactly what Patterson learned: Continue Reading…

The Interpretation of Financial Statements by Benjamin Graham

June 10, 2020 by

The Interpretation of Financial StatementsBuy the Book: Print

Published in 1937, Ben Graham covers the basics of accounting and financial statements. It’s a condensed guide on reading the balance sheet and income statement, explaining common metrics, and tips on how to determine the soundness of a company.

The Notes

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Cartoons of the 1929 Crash

June 5, 2020 by Jon

Newspapers have limited real estate. It should be no surprise that the stock market failed to make the front page every day of 1929. It was competing against news about prohibition, bootleggers, tariffs, and politics for the top spot.

The market really only dominated the headlines for about two weeks out of the year. The big week was at the end of October. The rest was sporadically spread out during the year.

But in those two weeks, editorial cartoonists wonderfully captured the speculative phenomenon of the market bubble and crash. The gambling nature, the easy money mentality, mistiming the top, the promises never to do it again…until next time, they captured it all.

After digging through the headlines of 1929, the cartoons were too obvious to be ignored, so I grabbed some to share. Take a look: Continue Reading…

How to Take a Chance by Darrell Huff

June 3, 2020 by

How to Take a ChanceBuy the Book: Print

Darrell Huff offers an introduction to the theory of probability that you can find in all aspects of life. He weaves in bits of humor and literature to explain the different concepts with real-life examples of coin tosses, card games, roulette, and dice that should help you avoid expensive mistakes.

The Notes

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Timeless Lessons from Bubbles

May 29, 2020 by Jon

Every market bubble reveals important lessons after it bursts. Some of those lessons are one-off, tied to a specific bubble. The important lessons emerge each time prices reach euphoric heights.

John Kenneth Galbraith highlighted two such lessons from the 1920s bubble during a Congressional Hearing in 1979. His first is discussed often (so I’ll keep it short). His second can be found outside bubblier times too.

A sound idea carried too far

Prices first went up because of good earnings. Then they took leave of reality. The market was taken over by people for whom the only important fact was that prices were going up. Their buying then put up the prices but with the certainty that when the supply of such speculators — and gulls — ran out, as eventually it would, the upward movement would come to an end and prices would collapse in the rush to realize and get out. This, to repeat, is the classic speculative sequence.

If the only reason for buying a stock is because the price went up…buyer beware. Continue Reading…

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