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Charlie Munger’s Tendencies of Human Misjudgment

September 3, 2021 by Jon

Charlie Munger has spent a lifetime attempting to avoid stupid mistakes. He’s given a number of speeches on his experience over the years, that he ultimately compiled into one called: The Psychology of Human Misjudgment.

Munger noticed patterns of irrational behavior that led to repeated mistakes, so he set out to finds ways to understand psychology in order to avoid the mistakes himself:

I was greatly helped in my quest by two turns of mind. First, I had long looked for insight by inversion in the intense manner counseled by the great algebraist, Jacobi: “Invert, always invert.” I sought good judgment mostly by collecting instances of bad judgment, then pondering ways to avoid such outcomes. Second, I became so avid a collector of instances of bad judgment that I paid no attention to boundaries between professional territories. After all, why should I search for some tiny, unimportant, hard-to-find new stupidity in my own field when some large, important, easy-to-find stupidity was just over the fence in the other fellow’s professional territory? Besides, I could already see that real-world problems didn’t neatly lie within territorial boundaries. They jumped right across.

Through inversion, stupidity, and bad judgment, he came up 25 tendencies we’re all susceptible to whether we know it or not. What follows is a brief breakdown of those tendencies (though, I recommend reading the entire speech). Continue Reading…

Wise Words on the Lessons of Market History

August 27, 2021 by Jon

Market history is full of wonderful lessons. Not the surface-level lessons either.

The trouble is most people gravitate to the long-run data when first looking into market history. Except, that’s where they stop.

While yes, the data is useful — you learn how the different assets performed over the last century — but it’s just averages. And averages tend to smooth out bumpy rides. The interesting stuff is hidden in those bumpy rides.

One thing we learn is that markets are dynamic. It’s in a state of constant change.

Typically, those changes swing around the average, like a pendulum — moving away from it before reverting. On rare occasions, they don’t. Paradigm shifts.

One such paradigm shift happened in 1958. For decades, stock dividend yields always stayed above bond yields. The spread between the two would fluctuate, of course, but anytime the two yields came close they acted like two magnetics repelling each other.

As stock prices rose, dividend yields fell but never below bond yields. Anytime stock yields dipped close to bond yields, stock prices (or bond prices) would fall, and the spread between stock yields and bond yields would widen again. It was a pattern that investors relied on for its consistency. And it worked well…until it didn’t. Continue Reading…

Investment Planning Study Guide

September 8, 2021 by

Contains the notes on the Investment Planning study book material for the CFP Board Exam. Topics range from investment characteristics and risks, valuation basics, portfolio theory, and behavioral finance.

The Notes

Continue Reading…

How Bernard Baruch Evaluated Businesses

August 20, 2021 by Jon

One of the more difficult aspects of investing is knowing when to walk away from an investment. Selling, as they say, is the hardest part.

Not only because of the numerous biases investors face after an investment is made, but the impact of change — the kind that destroys companies — is difficult to recognize in the moment.

Selling is tough enough if investors are saddled with over-optimism, groupthink, confirmation bias, endowment effect, status quo bias, and the always difficult sunk-cost fallacy, to name a few. If you’re confident the company is fine, surround yourself with people that think the same, only look for affirming evidence to the fact and ignore the rest, overvalue the investment simply because you own it, and let all the time, money, and emotion you’ve “invested” in a single stock infect your decisions, then selling will be a grueling experience.

To complicate things further, the value of companies change all the time. Not always at the same rate as its stock price. It gets especially confusing when the company’s value and stock price move in opposite directions. To sum it up, selling is hard! Continue Reading…

Insurance Study Guide

September 8, 2021 by

Contains the notes on the Insurance study book material for the CFP Board Exam. Topics include life, disability, health, auto, P&L, annuities, and Social Security.

The Notes

Continue Reading…

Bernard Baruch’s Investing Rules

August 13, 2021 by Jon

Bernard Baruch once said that Wall Street provided an extended course on investor behavior. It taught him that human nature was the driving force behind markets and investing mistakes.

Baruch was born in 1870 and began his career as a broker. He quickly learned that every investment carries some risk. It’s always a gamble.

What we can try to do perhaps is to come to a better understanding of how to reduce the element of risk in whatever we undertake. Or put another way…our problem is how to remain properly venturesome and experimental without making fools of ourselves.

He must have figured it out because, by the turn of the century, he had his own brokerage firm, a seat on the NYSE, a few million to his name, and a reputation as a savvy financier.

His fortune continued to grow during the 1920s bull market. But as luck would have it, he sidestepped the crash. Continue Reading…

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